Goldman Sachs Predicts S&P 500 Rise to 8,700 Points Despite Slowing Global Earnings

Goldman Sachs has issued a forecast predicting that the S&P 500 will reach 8,700 points within the next 12 months. This projection comes as the index closed at 7,592.40 points on Thursday, November 13, 2026. While the outlook for the index remains positive, the financial institution anticipates that global corporate earnings growth will decrease by at least half during 2027.

Market Projections and Economic Outlook

The projected growth for the S&P 500 represents an approximate 14% increase from its most recent closing price. This optimism exists despite a significant expected slowdown in US earnings growth. US earnings growth is projected to drop to 11% in 2027, a sharp decline from the 36% growth rate recorded in 2026. Peter Oppenheimer, the Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated that global earnings growth will slow significantly in 2027 due to high AI investment and financing costs.

The bank's analysts suggest that equities will generate positive returns but with higher volatility than seen in recent years. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at approximately 18.5 times its 12-month forward earnings. This is a decrease from recent highs where the multiple exceeded 23 times. In contrast, Nvidia is trading at approximately 11.7 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates.

Regional Ratings and Market Context

In its regional analysis, Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for the United States and Japan. The firm maintains a neutral rating for Asia and emerging markets, while it maintains an underweight rating for Europe. Specific targets for other major indices include 4,500 for the TOPIX, 700 for the STOXX 600, and 1,850 for the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

Recent market activity has been influenced by political and corporate developments. A recent selloff in major technology companies was triggered by concerns over slowing data center construction following the Democratic Party victory in the US midterm elections held the week prior to November 13, 2026. Additionally, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has quit following reports of alleged extramarital affairs.

Future Economic Considerations

The shift in earnings growth highlights a changing landscape for global investors. The reduction in US earnings growth from 36% to 11% reflects the broader trend of slowing global corporate earnings. As investment in artificial intelligence and financing costs impact the market, the volatility mentioned by Peter Oppenheimer may become a standard feature for equity investors. The current valuation of the S&P 500 suggests a market that is more moderately priced than during previous peaks.

Glossary

• S&P 500 — The S&P 500 is a stock index. It is used to track market performance and is currently trading at approximately 18.5 times its 12-month forward earnings.
• overweight rating — An overweight rating is a designation maintained by Goldman Sachs for the United States and Japan.
• neutral rating — A neutral rating is a designation maintained by Goldman Sachs for Asia and emerging markets.
• underweight rating — An underweight rating is a designation maintained by Goldman Sachs for Europe.